51 Forest Ave #23

Old Greenwich, CT 06870

$869,000D

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · Built 1990 · Condo · Under Contract · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,069/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,557
• Tax + insurance: −$760
• HOA: −$915
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,275
• Net cashflow: $-1,437/mo
• Annual: $-17,247/yr
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.09%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $243,320

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $869k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $615k (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $607k (30.2% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $607k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $88k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $82k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#108 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Greenwich School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #12 of 153 in CT (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: International School At Dundee (math 77% / reading 82%, grade A, #22 of 553 statewide, top 4%, 341 students, 8% FRL); Eastern Middle School (math 75% / reading 81%, grade A+, #2 of 175 statewide, top 1%, 784 students, 6% FRL); Greenwich High School (math 59% / reading 78%, grade B, #23 of 194 statewide, top 12%, 2,668 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 7 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $500k; list at $869k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$141k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.4% in Old Greenwich — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.