16420 4th Ave N

Plymouth, MN 55447

$519,900B-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,187 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Pending · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,909/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,726
• Tax + insurance: −$612
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,241
• Net cashflow: $1,330/mo
• Annual: $15,963/yr
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.97%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $145,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $520k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $520k).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($504k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $504k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#17 in MN, #517 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Wayzata Public School District (urban): math 75% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #2 of 301 in MN (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Birchview Elementary (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #130 of 857 statewide, top 18%, 433 students, 30% FRL); Wayzata Central Middle (math 71% / reading 79%, grade A, #3 of 258 statewide, top 1%, 1,502 students, 13% FRL); Wayzata High (math 77% / reading 84%, grade A, #2 of 471 statewide, top 0%, 3,523 students, 14% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $340k; list at $520k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.1% in Plymouth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,909/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 265% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.