2273 Toby Beth Dr

Mount Morris, MI 48505

$69,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,055/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax + insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $320/mo
• Annual: $3,837/yr
• Cap rate: 11.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.86%
• DSCR: 1.88
• 1% rule: 1.53%
• Cash to close: $19,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $63k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($477 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#357 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Beecher Community School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #722 of 760 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dailey Elementary School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,325 of 1,397 statewide, top 99%, 312 students, 96% FRL); Beecher High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #659 of 713 statewide, top 97%, 262 students, 94% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 5.6% in Mount Morris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($33k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.