325 E Main St

Lincoln, MO 65338

$165,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 863 sqft · Built 1900 · Other · Active · 187 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $962/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $-380/mo
• Annual: $-4,560/yr
• Cap rate: 3.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.87%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-380 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (33.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (41.7% below list).
• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (41.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#168 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lincoln R-II (rural): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #91 of 324 in MO (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.