2203 Winterberry Ln

Cambridge, MD 21613

$259,990D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,762 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 98 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,514/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$433
• HOA: −$267
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-78/mo
• Annual: $-934/yr
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $72,797

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $260k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-934/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (3.3% below list).
• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $237k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#255 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, employment F.
• Dorchester County Public Schools (rural): math 10% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #23 of 24 in MD (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Maple Elementary School (math 5% / reading 8%, grade F, #740 of 860 statewide, top 87%, 392 students, 100% FRL); Mace'S Lane Middle School (math 2% / reading 16%, grade F, #212 of 225 statewide, top 95%, 481 students, 100% FRL); Cambridge-South Dorchester High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #151 of 222 statewide, top 68%, 784 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 58% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 382 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 140d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 81 units permitted in Dorchester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dorchester County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Cambridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,514/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?