18512 SE Old Trail Dr E

Jupiter Farms, FL 33478

$1,950,000C

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 4,346 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Active · 142 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $22,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,226
• Tax + insurance: −$1,940
• HOA: −$210
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,725
• Net cashflow: $5,399/mo
• Annual: $64,787/yr
• Cap rate: 9.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.87%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $546,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.95M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($65k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($22k rent vs $1.95M).
• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.72M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.72M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $58k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#617 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $250k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $875k; list at $1.95M implies a 123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $546k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.