78 Thistle Way

Manchester, NH 03109

$139,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,779/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $449/mo
• Annual: $5,383/yr
• Cap rate: 10.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.78%
• DSCR: 1.70
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $449 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#10 in NH, #879 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Manchester School District (urban): math 14% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #96 of 98 in NH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Green Acres School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #179 of 263 statewide, top 71%, 435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 22% FRL vs 50% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 20% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manchester School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 981 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (381 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 3.1% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.