30839 Washington St

Sodaville, OR 97355

$272,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Pending · 227 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,131/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,426
• Tax + insurance: −$254
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $3/mo
• Annual: $39/yr
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $76,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $272k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($39/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (21.7% below list).
• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $213k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#303 in OR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime D-.
• Lebanon Community SD 9 (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #26 of 58 in OR (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riverview School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #218 of 412 statewide, top 58%, 401 students, 69% FRL); Seven Oak Middle School (math 23% / reading 43%, grade F, #76 of 128 statewide, top 60%, 593 students, 70% FRL); Lebanon High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #141 of 143 statewide, top 99%, 1,289 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 53% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 246 active listings in the ZIP; 311 units permitted in Linn County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Linn County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $195k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.