3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,466 sqft ·
Built 1940
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 18 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,203/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$367
Tax + insurance
−$166
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$253
Net cashflow
$417/mo
Annual
$5,000/yr
Cap rate
13.44%
Cash-on-cash
25.51%
DSCR
2.14
1% rule
1.72%
Cash to close
$19,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $417 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#383 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
Laneville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #572 of 1,141 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Rusk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Rusk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8MM525097PMBSV
· Data 10 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29