404 John Joy Rd

Zena, NY 12498

$679,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,644 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Active · 116 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,634/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,561
• Tax + insurance: −$1,615
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$763
• Net cashflow: $-2,305/mo
• Annual: $-27,662/yr
• Cap rate: 2.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.55%
• DSCR: 0.35
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $190,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $679k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-28k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (52.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $363k (46.5% below list).
• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($618k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $320k (52.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#966 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Saugerties Central School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #419 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Morse School (math 27% / reading 62%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 301 students, 49% FRL); Saugerties Junior High School (math 20% / reading 44%, grade F, #511 of 729 statewide, top 71%, 358 students, 46% FRL); Saugerties Senior High School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 756 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 31% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $439k; list at $679k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.