95 Birge Rd

Bristol, CT 06010

$202,800C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 1943 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,103/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,064
• Tax + insurance: −$455
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $143/mo
• Annual: $1,711/yr
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.01%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $56,784

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $203k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $203k).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $191k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#21 in CT, #1,585 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Bristol School District (suburban): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #109 of 153 in CT (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Bristol School (math 19% / reading 32%, grade F, #418 of 553 statewide, top 76%, 819 students, 65% FRL); Bristol Central High School (math 25% / reading 55%, grade F, #106 of 194 statewide, top 54%, 1,246 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 37% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 222 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $203k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.3% in Bristol — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.