11201 N EL Mirage Rd #920

El Mirage, AZ 85335

$138,500C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,358/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$726
• Tax + insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $115/mo
• Annual: $1,385/yr
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.57%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $38,780

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (2.0% below list).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $958 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#112 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Luke Elementary School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 623 students, 55% FRL); Dysart High School (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #139 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 1,433 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 41% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 131 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $138k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.5% in El Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: kitchen cabinets — Blue cabinets show some wear.
• Minor: bathroom fixtures — White fixtures appear slightly worn.
• Minor: exterior siding — Light-colored siding shows some wear.
• Minor: interior walls — Painted walls show some wear.
• Minor: landscaping — Palm trees and a covered patio need trimming and maintenance.