3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
960 sqft ·
Built 1970
· SingleFamily
· Under Contract
· 168 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$992/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$446
Tax + insurance
−$67
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$208
Net cashflow
$271/mo
Annual
$3,247/yr
Cap rate
10.11%
Cash-on-cash
13.64%
DSCR
1.61
1% rule
1.17%
Cash to close
$23,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $271 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($992 rent vs $85k).
It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#142 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Mena School District (rural): math 42% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #70 of 238 in AR (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Mena High School (math 25% / reading 39%, grade F, #119 of 292 statewide, top 43%, 498 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Polk County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $42k; list at $85k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.1% in Mena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8NRB11A3NASZRB
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29