2820 Vinnie St

Greenville, TX 75401

$115,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,390 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Pending · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,425/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $323/mo
• Annual: $3,880/yr
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.05%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#78 in TX, #2,719 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, commute F.
• Greenville ISD (town): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #743 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Travis El (math 20% / reading 14%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 655 students, 85% FRL); Greenville Middle (math 17% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 727 students, 76% FRL); Greenville H S (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,480 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 55% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 395 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.1% in Greenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.