3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
860 sqft ·
Built 1921
· SingleFamily
· Under Contract
· 159 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,451/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,284
Tax + insurance
−$383
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$515
Net cashflow
$270/mo
Annual
$3,235/yr
Cap rate
7.61%
Cash-on-cash
4.72%
DSCR
1.21
1% rule
1.00%
Cash to close
$68,544
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $245k).
It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $215k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#384 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D+, schools D-, amenities F.
Plainfield Public School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #588 of 612 in NJ (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,749 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (1,421 in 5+ unit buildings).
Union County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $160k; list at $245k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.3% in Plainfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29