3839 Northern Key Dr

Plant City, FL 33565

$353,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,936 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,704/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,856
• Tax + insurance: −$465
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $-185/mo
• Annual: $-2,216/yr
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.24%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $99,092

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $354k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (23.6% below list).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($333k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $270k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 307 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.