303 J W Bailey Rd

Calhoun, KY 42327

$79,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,028 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $959/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $269/mo
• Annual: $3,232/yr
• Cap rate: 10.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.45%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($959 rent vs $80k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#360 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mclean County (rural): math 34% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #34 of 165 in KY (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Calhoun Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #66 of 676 statewide, top 11%, 310 students, 50% FRL); Mclean County Middle School (math 30% / reading 41%, grade F, #94 of 217 statewide, top 44%, 319 students, 53% FRL); Mclean County High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #58 of 254 statewide, top 27%, 413 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in McLean County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McLean County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $80k implies a 166% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.