501 N Pine St

Fordyce, AR 71742

$40,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,636 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,183/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $658/mo
• Annual: $7,897/yr
• Cap rate: 26.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.51%
• DSCR: 4.14
• 1% rule: 2.96%
• Cash to close: $11,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $658 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#313 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Fordyce School District (town): math 19% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #203 of 238 in AR (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP.
• Dallas County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.