13015 Toomes Camp Rd

Paskenta, CA 96074

$55,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,996 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,519/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$247
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $664/mo
• Annual: $7,972/yr
• Cap rate: 23.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.52%
• DSCR: 3.74
• 1% rule: 2.76%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $664 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,270 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Corning Union High (rural): math 12% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #1,151 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.