302 Walnut Cv

Onalaska, TX 77360

$164,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 257 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,334/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax + insurance: −$537
• HOA: −$8
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $-350/mo
• Annual: $-4,206/yr
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.16%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $45,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-350 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (18.6% below list).
• It's been on market 257 days — a 12% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $136 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-998 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,055 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Onalaska ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $164k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.9% in Onalaska — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 257 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?