2810 12th St

Edgemere, MD 21219

$369,000C-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,773 sqft · Built 1929 · SingleFamily · Pending · 163 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax + insurance: −$953
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $-123/mo
• Annual: $-1,480/yr
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.92%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $103,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $369k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $347k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (5.1% below list).
• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $325k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#330 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Campfield Early Childhood Center (352 students, 62% FRL); Sparrows Point Middle (math 7% / reading 30%, grade F, #159 of 225 statewide, top 73%, 561 students, 54% FRL); Sparrows Point High (math 18% / reading 53%, grade F, #144 of 222 statewide, top 65%, 1,146 students, 44% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $127k; list at $369k implies a 191% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.7% in Edgemere — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.