168 Lincoln Gray Cir

New Market, AL 35761

$279,995F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,813 sqft · Built — · Land · Active · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,271/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$467
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-166/mo
• Annual: $-1,986/yr
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.53%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $78,399

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (18.9% below list).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#304 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Madison County (rural): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #19 of 129 in AL (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riverton Elementary School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #63 of 627 statewide, top 10%, 581 students, 29% FRL); Buckhorn Middle School (math 19% / reading 59%, grade F, #64 of 257 statewide, top 25%, 688 students, 38% FRL); Buckhorn High School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #59 of 305 statewide, top 21%, 1,287 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 394 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.1% in New Market — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.