88 Happy Haven Rd

Wilmington, VT 05363

$389,900C-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,168 sqft · Built 1971 · Other · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$494
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $226/mo
• Annual: $2,713/yr
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.49%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $109,172

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $390k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (10.2% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $350k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#57 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 188 units permitted in Windham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Windham County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $390k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.5% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.