415 Pinecroft Ln

Spencer, NC 28159

$269,900D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,601 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,853/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-226/mo
• Annual: $-2,714/yr
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.59%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (31.3% below list).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#482 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rowan-Salisbury Schools (rural): math 26% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #142 of 178 in NC (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Rowan Elementary (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,242 of 1,410 statewide, top 90%, 426 students, 92% FRL); North Rowan Middle (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #433 of 475 statewide, top 91%, 440 students, 89% FRL); North Rowan High (math 2% / reading 37%, grade F, #492 of 535 statewide, top 93%, 589 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 54% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 592 units permitted in Rowan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rowan County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.