9960 Shaw Ferry Rd

Lenoir City, TN 37772

$179,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1981 · Other · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,105/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $420/mo
• Annual: $5,037/yr
• Cap rate: 9.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.00%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $420 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#221 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Loudon County (rural): math 39% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #18 of 139 in TN (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eaton Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #119 of 952 statewide, top 14%, 672 students, 0% FRL); North Middle School (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #24 of 333 statewide, top 7%, 780 students, 0% FRL); Loudon High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #104 of 332 statewide, top 33%, 732 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 44% district-wide (44 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 608 units permitted in Loudon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Loudon County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.9% in Lenoir City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.