4041 King Tarpon Dr

Burnt Store Marina, FL 33955

$495,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,601 sqft · Built 1994 · Condo · Active · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,691/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax + insurance: −$629
• HOA: −$639
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$985
• Net cashflow: $-159/mo
• Annual: $-1,904/yr
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $138,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $495k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-159 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $467k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $469k (5.2% below list).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($450k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $450k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#354 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Elementary School (math 70% / reading 65%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 1,231 students, 38% FRL); Challenger Middle School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,124 students, 50% FRL); Ida S. Baker High School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,933 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 57% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 1485 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.8% in Burnt Store Marina — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $4,691/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 226% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.