20716 Grand

Wildomar, CA 92595

$350,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,568/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$446
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-253/mo
• Annual: $-3,035/yr
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.10%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-253 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (26.6% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $257k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#951 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Lake Elsinore Unified (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #210 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $288k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Wildomar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.