196 Baltimore Ave

Bridgeton, NJ 08302

$119,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,521/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$317
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $256/mo
• Annual: $3,068/yr
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.14%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#240 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Bridgeton City School District (town): math 4% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #468 of 472 in NJ (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cherry Street School (math 2% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,207 of 1,303 statewide, top 93%, 532 students, 0% FRL); Bridgeton High School (math 5% / reading 29%, grade F, #378 of 399 statewide, top 95%, 1,681 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 56% district-wide (56 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 203 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 216 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cumberland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $120k implies a 166% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 5.0% in Bridgeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.