18 Pine Dr N

Roslyn, NY 11576

$1,599,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,577 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,790/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,385
• Tax + insurance: −$2,262
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,266
• Net cashflow: $-2,123/mo
• Annual: $-25,472/yr
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.69%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $447,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.60M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.22M (23.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.08M (32.5% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.58M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.08M (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $131k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $120k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#63 in NY, #910 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Roslyn Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #28 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Hills Elementary School (math 80% / reading 83%, grade A+, #170 of 2,108 statewide, top 8%, 565 students, 17% FRL); Roslyn Middle School (math 78% / reading 82%, grade A+, #28 of 729 statewide, top 4%, 766 students, 16% FRL); Roslyn High School (math 97% / reading 87%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,035 students, 15% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $870k; list at $1.60M implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$209k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.