226 Walnut St

Lemoyne, PA 17043

$234,990D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,794 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Pending · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,926/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$371
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-82/mo
• Annual: $-981/yr
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.49%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $65,797

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-981/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (18.0% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $193k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#60 in PA, #413 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities D+.
• West Shore SD (suburban): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #222 of 539 in PA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Washington Heights El Sch (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,094 of 1,518 statewide, top 73%, 392 students, 63% FRL); New Cumberland Ms (math 17% / reading 49%, grade F, #346 of 512 statewide, top 69%, 549 students, 49% FRL); Cedar Cliff Hs (math 56% / reading 24%, grade F, #263 of 437 statewide, top 60%, 1,353 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 25% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask is 68% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $172k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.