3 bd · 3.5 ba ·
1,310 sqft ·
Built 1901
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 74 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,333/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$707
Tax + insurance
−$207
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$280
Net cashflow
$139/mo
Annual
$1,670/yr
Cap rate
8.02%
Cash-on-cash
6.19%
DSCR
1.28
1% rule
0.99%
Cash to close
$37,772
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $135k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (1.2% below list).
It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 89/100 on livability (#7 in IA, #119 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-.
Dubuque Community School District (urban): math 63% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #205 of 289 in IA (top 71%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 225 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 473 units permitted in Dubuque County in 2024 (319 in 5+ unit buildings).
Dubuque County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $45k; list at $135k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.5% in Dubuque — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8TF9HP6WS858A2
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29