1068 Hugh Hunter Rd

Oak Grove, KY 42262

$200,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,313/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $-195/mo
• Annual: $-2,346/yr
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.19%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (34.4% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (34.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#445 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Christian County (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #93 of 165 in KY (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pembroke Elementary School (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #251 of 676 statewide, top 37%, 660 students, 64% FRL); Hopkinsville High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 962 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 83 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 193 units permitted in Christian County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Christian County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $153k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.5% in Oak Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.