4 bd · 1.5 ba ·
2,200 sqft ·
Built 1948
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 273 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$15,000/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$4,190
Tax + insurance
−$916
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$3,150
Net cashflow
$6,743/mo
Annual
$80,922/yr
Cap rate
16.42%
Cash-on-cash
36.17%
DSCR
2.61
1% rule
1.88%
Cash to close
$223,720
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $799k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($81k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $799k).
It's been on market 273 days — a 12% lower offer ($703k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $703k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#965 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $121k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $149k; list at $799k implies a 436% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $224k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 273 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8TZ0ZD23BKK997
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29