4618 W Pearl Ave

Tampa, FL 33611

$335,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,948 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Pending · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,658/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax + insurance: −$1,266
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$768
• Net cashflow: $-133/mo
• Annual: $-1,596/yr
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.76%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $93,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (7.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $335k).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $312k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 416 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $114k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,658/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 1761% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?