120 Co Rd 3513

Shadybrook, TX 75757

$115,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,116 sqft · Built 2015 · Manufactured · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax + insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $523/mo
• Annual: $6,277/yr
• Cap rate: 11.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.34%
• DSCR: 1.86
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $32,452

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $116k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $116k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $801 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,042 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bullard El (math 61% / reading 61%, grade B, #368 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 434 students, 36% FRL); Bullard Middle (math 69% / reading 66%, grade A-, #77 of 1,662 statewide, top 5%, 459 students, 33% FRL); Bullard H S (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 848 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 581 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $116k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 4.0% in Shadybrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.