54 Blackberry Ln

Morristown, NJ 07960-6404

$1,369,000B-

6 bd · 4.5 ba · 4,534 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $22,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,179
• Tax + insurance: −$2,125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,725
• Net cashflow: $8,471/mo
• Annual: $101,648/yr
• Cap rate: 13.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.52%
• DSCR: 2.18
• 1% rule: 1.64%
• Cash to close: $383,320

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $1.37M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($102k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($22k rent vs $1.37M).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $41k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#38 in NJ, #927 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Morris School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #214 of 472 in NJ (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Morristown High School (math 23% / reading 58%, grade F, #184 of 399 statewide, top 46%, 1,868 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,357 units permitted in Morris County in 2024 (1,496 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morris County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $740k; list at $1.37M implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $383k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$82k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 1.4% in Morristown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.