17 Ashlar Hill Ct #17

Parkville, MD 21234

$165,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,033 sqft · Built 1994 · Condo · Active Under Contract · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,762/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$249
• HOA: −$284
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-6/mo
• Annual: $-72/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-72/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (0.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#77 in MD, #2,839 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Halstead Academy (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #614 of 860 statewide, top 75%, 515 students, 76% FRL); Loch Raven Technical Academy (math 6% / reading 32%, grade F, #155 of 225 statewide, top 70%, 781 students, 60% FRL); Parkville High (math 9% / reading 35%, grade F, #171 of 222 statewide, top 78%, 2,200 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 39% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?