56 Pine St

Melbourne, AR 72556

$175,000D-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,697 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 181 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,282/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $-28/mo
• Annual: $-337/yr
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.69%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-337/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (26.8% below list).
• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#127 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Melbourne School District (rural): math 48% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #22 of 238 in AR (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Izard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Izard County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $175k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Melbourne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.