11 Corwin Cir

Hampton, VA 23666

$215,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,371 sqft · Built 1988 · Townhouse · Under Contract · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,776/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$297
• HOA: −$73
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-95/mo
• Annual: $-1,143/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.90%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (17.4% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $178k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#133 in VA, #4,302 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Hampton City Public School District (urban): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #40 of 131 in VA (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Luther W. Machen Elementary (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #650 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 455 students, 84% FRL); Bethel High (math 64% / reading 84%, grade B+, #120 of 319 statewide, top 38%, 1,777 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 49% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 231 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 68 units permitted in Hampton city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hampton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.5% in Hampton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.