2802 38th Ave

Oakland, CA 94619

$799,888B-

7 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,171 sqft · Built 1925 · MultiFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,588/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,195
• Tax + insurance: −$1,333
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,013
• Net cashflow: $2,047/mo
• Annual: $24,560/yr
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.97%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $223,969

Investor read

• This is a 7-bed/3.5-bath multifamily listed at $800k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $800k).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($776k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $776k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#224 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Oakland Unified (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,007 of 1,400 in CA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $224k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.4% in Oakland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $9,588/mo this rent would consume 89% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 1071% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.