10641 Lott Cemetery Rd

Chunchula, AL 36521

$204,214D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 211 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $971/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,071
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $-424/mo
• Annual: $-5,089/yr
• Cap rate: 3.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.90%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $57,180

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $204k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-424 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (36.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (52.4% below list).
• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (52.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#403 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: J E Turner Elementary (math 16% / reading 50%, grade F, #323 of 627 statewide, top 52%, 532 students, 60% FRL); Semmes Middle School (math 8% / reading 35%, grade F, #185 of 257 statewide, top 73%, 1,318 students, 68% FRL); Mary G Montgomery High School (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #211 of 305 statewide, top 69%, 1,965 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $204k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.