390 Mary St

Downingtown, PA 19335

$400,000D

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,576 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 130 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,953/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax + insurance: −$697
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-462/mo
• Annual: $-5,542/yr
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.95%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $112,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-462 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (26.2% below list).
• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $295k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#13 in PA, #56 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+.
• Downingtown Area SD (suburban): math 67% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #9 of 539 in PA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Beaver Creek El Sch (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #377 of 1,518 statewide, top 28%, 527 students, 19% FRL); Downingtown Ms (math 42% / reading 77%, grade B, #46 of 512 statewide, top 9%, 1,154 students, 13% FRL); Downingtown Hs West Campus (math 77%, 1,798 students, 16% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 75% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Downingtown Area SD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 240 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,513 units permitted in Chester County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chester County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 13 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $125k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $166k; list at $400k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.0% in Downingtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.