3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,050 sqft ·
Built 1972
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 15 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,497/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$175
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$314
Net cashflow
$142/mo
Annual
$1,705/yr
Cap rate
7.33%
Cash-on-cash
3.69%
DSCR
1.16
1% rule
0.91%
Cash to close
$46,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (9.3% below list).
It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $150k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Bel Aire Elementary School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #172 of 375 statewide, top 48%, 596 students, 100% FRL); Harrison Central High School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #58 of 197 statewide, top 29%, 1,486 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 62% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 49% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Harrison County School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8X85T62PY5RJKT
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29