410 17th St

Arnold, PA 15068

$14,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · Built 1903 · Other · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,268/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$78
• Tax + insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $832/mo
• Annual: $9,983/yr
• Cap rate: 78.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 258.40%
• DSCR: 12.50
• 1% rule: 8.51%
• Cash to close: $4,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $15k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $832 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($14k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $14k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $103 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $447 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#1,212 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• New Kensington-Arnold SD (suburban): math 16% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #483 of 539 in PA (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1903 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 415 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westmoreland County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1903 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.