3921 48th St

New York, NY 11104

$1,325,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1925 · MultiFamily · Pending · 173 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,719/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,948
• Tax + insurance: −$1,317
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,041
• Net cashflow: $-588/mo
• Annual: $-7,052/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.90%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $371,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.32M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-588 ($-7k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-294/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.22M (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $972k (26.6% below list).
• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.17M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $972k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.7%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $174k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $1.32M implies a 516% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $9,719/mo this rent would consume 145% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 1859% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?