456 Cummings Rd

Trion, GA 30753

$119,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 1950 · Other · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,506/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $430/mo
• Annual: $5,157/yr
• Cap rate: 10.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.48%
• DSCR: 1.69
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $430 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#257 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Chattooga County (rural): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #140 of 174 in GA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Leroy Massey Elementary School (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #973 of 1,228 statewide, top 80%, 814 students, 83% FRL); Summerville Middle School (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #377 of 470 statewide, top 81%, 384 students, 80% FRL); Chattooga High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #184 of 424 statewide, top 48%, 713 students, 65% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Chattooga County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chattooga County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 12 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $119k implies a 380% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.