16 Lancaster Ct

Burlington, NJ 08060

$474,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,858 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,201/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,486
• Tax + insurance: −$780
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$882
• Net cashflow: $53/mo
• Annual: $634/yr
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.48%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $132,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $474k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($634/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $420k (11.4% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $420k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#89 in NJ, #2,359 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F.
• Westampton Township Public School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #288 of 472 in NJ (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Holly Hills Elementary School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #731 of 1,303 statewide, top 59%, 394 students, 19% FRL); Westampton Township Middle School (math 17% / reading 45%, grade F, #299 of 431 statewide, top 70%, 529 students, 22% FRL); Rancocas Valley Regional High School (math 29% / reading 49%, grade F, #197 of 399 statewide, top 51%, 1,981 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.9% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,201/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($109k/yr) (locally 562% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.