1418 Woodland Dr

Poplar Bluff, MO 63901

$189,500D

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,310 sqft · Built 1965 · Other · Active · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,365/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$994
• Tax + insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-65/mo
• Annual: $-775/yr
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $53,060

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-775/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (28.0% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#143 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Poplar Bluff R-I (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #127 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 277 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butler County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Poplar Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.