78 Gemini Ct

Martinsburg, WV 25404

$269,000F

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,842/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax + insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$27
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-197/mo
• Annual: $-2,362/yr
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.14%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $75,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-197 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (31.5% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#29 in WV, #4,057 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Berkeley County Schools (other): math 21% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #24 of 55 in WV (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 109 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,460 units permitted in Berkeley County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Berkeley County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $269k implies a 222% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.9% in Martinsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.