1190 Cr 3260

Colmesneil, TX 75938

$154,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1992 · Manufactured · Active · 110 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,003/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax + insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $-278/mo
• Annual: $-3,335/yr
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.69%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $43,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-278 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (35.2% below list).
• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $100k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,035 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Colmesneil ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #319 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Tyler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tyler County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 1.8% in Colmesneil — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.